This evening the Phillies start their best of seven series against the Dodgers. If you look at the stats, I believe they should win, but it should take seven games. Here is why....
The Phillies and Dodgers played each other 8 times in the regular season this year.
Four games were played in Philadelphia.
Four games were played in Los Angeles.
The Phillies won all four games at home and lost the four on the road.
In the National League Championship Series the Phillies have home-field advantage, meaning that if the series goes seven games, the majority of the games will be played in Philadelphia. The first two are in Philly, the third and fourth games are in LA. If needed, a fifth game is in LA and if needed, games six and seven are in Philadelphia.
It would appear that these teams are very well matched. Here are some other stats from this year.
The Phillies outscored the Dodgers 27-5 at home.
The Phillies were outscored 22-16 on the road against LA.
The Phillies pitchers who won the games against LA have a cumulative record this year of 34 wins and 27 losses or a 55.7% winning rate. The Dodgers pitchers who won against Philly have a cumulative record of 23 wins and 23 losses or a 50% win rate.
Based on this simple analysis, the games should be good, and if the Phillies can win one of the first two games in LA, they ought to be World Series bound.
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I'm sure all the percentages say that the team that wins the first two games goes on to win like 80 percent of the time, but don't get your hopes up too much that this will be a rout. Then again, I'm just hoping that the Phillies and Dodgers beat each other up and ruin their pitching staffs so the Sox will have an easier World Series (assuming we get there), so I'm just selfish.
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